A System for Nowcasting Atmospheric Conditions Associated with Jet Engine Power Loss and Damage Due to Ingestion of Ice Particles

Ingestion of ice particles by jet engines is believed to be responsible for multiple engine power-loss and damage events. This phenomenon, referred to as ice particle icing, has occurred during flights of large transport aircraft as well as commuter and business jets. This paper describes efforts to determine a set of meteorological predictors that indicate high ice water content (HIWC) conditions, relate those predictors to quantities available from routine meteorological data, and to develop a nowcasting system that will provide three-dimensional diagnoses and short-term forecasts of the possibility for HIWC conditions. The resulting prototype nowcasting system is demonstrated using a case study over the western tropical Pacific Ocean.