EXAMINING THE TIMING OF WOMEN'S RETIREMENT IN URBAN CHINA: A DISCRETE TIME HAZARD RATE APPROACH

In spite of phenomenal wage growth in recent decades, female labor force participation in urban China has experienced a notable decline, particularly for women over age 40. This paper estimates a probit model of labor force participation and a discrete time hazard rate model of labor force withdrawals among urban married women aged 40 to 51, using panel data spanning the years from 1991 to 2011. The results inform discussions about pension system reform in the face of population aging and declining labor supply. Recommendations are offered for policy measures that would increase women's labor force attachment, even as they approach their retirement horizon. (JEL J16, J22, J26)