Projecting future impacts of cropland reclamation policies on carbon storage

Abstract Cropland reclamation policies result in carbon storage loss by the conversion of natural land. However, the future impacts of cropland reclamation policies (CRP) on carbon storage have seldom been explored. Taking Hubei, China as study area, this study assesses the impacts of cropland reclamation policies before and after optimization on carbon storage from 2010 to 2030. The LAND System Cellular Automata model for Potential Effects (LANDSCAPE) was used to simulate the land use patterns in 2030, while the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) Carbon Storage and Sequestration model was applied to calculate the changes in carbon storage. Results indicate that carbon storage loss due to cropland reclamation policies is expected to increase from 0.48 Tg·C to 4.34 Tg·C between 2010 and 2030 in Hubei. This increase is related to the loss of wetland and forest. Carbon storage loss can be reduced by 52%–73% by protecting carbon-rich lands. This study highlights the importance of considering the carbon storage loss when implementing cropland reclamation policies.