Future trends of climatic belts and seasons in China

In this study, the present and future climate under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A2 scenario of CO2 emission are simulated by using the Regional Integrated Environment Modeling System (RIEMS). The simulated climatic belts, climatic seasons, and Yellow River ice phenology in China are compared between the present climate during 1975–1984 and the future climate during 2035–2044. The long-term trends of the regional climate are also estimated. Compared to 1975–1984, most of the climatic belts in China will shift northward in 2035–2044, by a maximum of 1.5–2° of latitude. The southern boundary of the Northern Sub-tropical Belt (NSB) will shift northward significantly, in spite of the little change in its northern boundary. The entire Southern Sub-tropical Belt (SSB) and the Middle Sub-tropical Belt (MSB), as well as the northern boundary of the Warm Extra-tropical Belt (WEB), will also shift northward by 1–2° of latitude. The starting dates of spring and summer will mostly advance, opposite to the delays in the starting dates of autumn and winter. As a whole, the summer in China will grow longer by 26.1 days, while spring, autumn, and winter will become shorter by 6.8, 7.9, and 11.4 days, respectively. In the upper reach of the Yellow River (URYR), the date for enduring sub-zero temperatures will be delayed by 8 days and the date for enduring above-zero temperatures will advance by 5 days. In the lower reach of the river, the date for enduring sub-zero temperatures will be delayed by 4 days and the date for enduring above-zero temperatures will advance by 4 days. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society