Early estimation of the epidemiological parameters of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) outbreak in Iran: 19 Feb-15 March, 2020

Aim: To estimate the epidemiological parameters related to the Covid-19 outbreak in Iran Background: Estimating the epidemiological parameters of new public health threat (COVID-19) is essential to support and inform public health decision-making in different communities including Iran Methods: We established a mathematical model to estimate the epidemiological parameters from 19 Feb to 15 March based on daily COVID-19 confirmed cases in Iran Then, we estimated the effect of early traffic restriction on our estimation Results: We estimated the R0 at 2 11 (95% CI, 1 87-2 50) and the infected number at 92,260 (95% CI: 59,263 -152,212) by 15 March Our estimate for the ascertainment rate was about 1 2% (95% CI: 1 1-1 4) The latent period estimation was 4 24 (95% CI: 2 84-6 65) We observed a decline in our estimate after considering the traffic restriction Conclusion: Our results suggest that health authorities in Iran must take impactful strategies to control the COVID-19 outbreak to reach R0<1 Therefore, the establishment of complementary, multilateral, and cost-effective measures for the treatment of symptomatic and early diagnosis and isolation of asymptomatic cases/contacts are strongly recommended because of low ascertainment rate and large number of infected cases We additionally recommend that traffic restriction be combined with other controlling measures © 2020 RIGLD, Research Institute for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases