Impact of changes in climate and CO 2 on the carbon-sequestration potential of vegetation under limited water availability using SEIB-DGVM version 3.02

Abstract. Documenting year-to-year variations in carbon-sequestration potential in terrestrial ecosystems is crucial for the determination of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. However, the magnitude, pattern and inner biomass partitioning of carbon-sequestration potential, and the effect of the changes in climate and CO2 on inner carbon stocks, remain poorly quantified. Herein, we use a spatially explicit individual based-dynamic global vegetation model to investigate the influences of the changes in climate and CO2 on the enhanced carbon-sequestration potential of vegetation. The modelling included a series of factorial simulations using the CRU dataset from 1916 to 2015. The results show that CO2 predominantly leads to a persistent and widespread increase in above-ground vegetation biomass carbon-stocks (AVBC) and below-ground vegetation biomass carbon-stocks (BVBC). Climate change appears to play a secondary role in carbon-sequestration potential. Importantly, with the mitigation of water stress, the magnitude of the above- and below-ground responses in vegetation carbon-stocks gradually increases, and the ratio between AVBC and BVBC increases to capture CO2 and sunlight. Changes in the pattern of vegetation carbon storage was linked to regional limitations in water, which directly weakens and indirectly regulates the response of potential vegetation carbon-stocks to a changing environment. Our findings differ from previous modelling evaluations of vegetation that ignored inner carbon dynamics and demonstrates that the long-term trend in increased vegetation biomass carbon-stocks is driven by CO2 fertilization and temperature effects that are controlled by water limitations.