A model to estimate available timber and forest biomass and reforestation expenses in a mountainous region in Japan

We developed a model to estimate supply potentials and available amounts of timber and forest biomass resources from profitable sub-compartments of thinning and final felling operations. Economic balances were estimated while considering not only harvesting expenses but also reforestation expenses after final felling, which should be considered for sustainable forest management. Harvesting expenses were estimated based on two types of timber harvesting systems and three types of forest biomass harvesting systems in each sub-compartment. Then, the model was applied to Nasushiobara city of Tochigi prefecture, Japan. Reforestation expenses had large negative impacts on the financial balances of final felling operations. Few sub-compartments were profitable after considering reforestation expenses. Most profitable sub-compartments were those with mechanized operation systems and landing sales. These accounted for 17.19% of all sub-compartments, while only 5.75% of the sub-compartments were profitable based on their current operation systems and landing sales. Although the overall supply potentials of timber and forest biomass resources were 380,000 m3 and 210,000 Mg, respectively, and 15 times the planned harvest of coniferous tree volume of 25,000 m3year-1 and 50 times the annual demand for the woody gasification power generation of 4,000 Mg year-1 in Nasushiobara, available amounts of timber and forest biomass resources were only49,429 m3 and 33,333 Mg, which were 13.0% and 15.7% of supply potentials for landing sales with mechanized operation systems.