Assessing the future conservation potential of the Amazon and Andes Protected Areas: using the Woolly Monkey (Lagothrix lagothricha) as an umbrella species

Abstract Tropical forests are facing constant degradation and destruction as a result of multiple threats, mostly from land-use, and increasingly from climate change. Understanding the effects of these threats, and the role of Protected Areas in buffering their impacts, is becoming an essential task to prevent the loss of species. In this study, we used the woolly monkey, a keystone species with seed dispersal functions, as a surrogate to assess the future conservation potential of the Protected Areas in Colombia, a megadiverse country where important tropical forests remain. We modelled the ecological niche of the woolly monkey using an ensemble forecasting approach, to assess potential distribution changes resulting from climate change and deforestation. Distribution changes in 2050 were estimated for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), three Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and one deforestation projection. Additionally, we evaluated the current and future suitable area for the species located within Protected Areas. For the year 2016, we estimated a potential distribution area for the woolly monkey of 413,533 km2 after accounting for deforestation. The future synergistic effect of climate change and deforestation could cause a reduction of up to ∼13% in the species potential distribution in Colombia, mainly in the Andean-Amazonian foothills and the Amazon region. The distribution area lost due to climate change was exceeded by losses due to deforestation in all scenarios, where up to 65,356 km2 could be lost as a result of forest clearance. The current Protected Area system will not be able to mitigate the impacts of climate and land-use changes, since ∼26% of the woolly monkey’s range is currently located within National Parks and Indigenous Reserves. This range could decrease by ∼18% in the most drastic future scenario. Based on these results, we emphasize the need of an integrated approach of land-use planning that encompasses the creation, expansion and connectivity of Protected Areas, along with the strengthening of law enforcement capacity and restoration efforts to halt increasing deforestation. The effective implementation of these strategies is necessary to assist species to track their suitable climatic conditions, especially through the Andean-Amazon foothills, and will contribute to the conservation of tropical biodiversity.