Taylor Moment Expansion for Continuous-Discrete Gaussian Filtering and Smoothing

The paper is concerned with non-linear Gaussian filtering and smoothing in continuous-discrete state-space models, where the dynamic model is formulated as an Ito stochastic differential equation (SDE), and the measurements are obtained at discrete time instants. We propose novel Taylor moment expansion (TME) Gaussian filter and smoother which approximate the moments of the SDE with a temporal Taylor expansion. Differently from classical linearisation or Ito--Taylor approaches, the Taylor expansion is formed for the moment functions directly and in time variable, not by using a Taylor expansion on the non-linear functions in the model. We analyse the theoretical properties, including the positive definiteness of the covariance estimate and stability of the TME Gaussian filter and smoother. By numerical experiments, we demonstrate that the proposed TME Gaussian filter and smoother significantly outperform the state-of-the-art methods in terms of estimation accuracy and numerical stability.