Changes in the Chinese Population’s Fertility Intentions: 1980-2011

On the basis of the findings of 227 surveys of Chinese fertility intentions over the years 1980-2011, this paper investigates the longitudinal changes in fertility intentions through cross-temporal meta-analysis. It is found that the ideal number of children for the Chinese trended downwards from 1980, but since 2000 the average number has remained basically stable at 1.6 to 1.8. In the 1980s, people’s fertility levels were higher than their fertility intentions. With economic and educational progress in China, both fertility levels and fertility intentions showed a downward trend, with the former declining faster than the latter. Since 1990, people’s fertility levels have been lower than their fertility intentions; that is, their actual number of children has been less than their ideal number. This provides an empirical basis for examining the changes in China’s fertility intentions and fertility levels.