Analytical Approach to Estimating the Probability of Transient Stability under Stochastic Disturbances

Power system transient stability is the system ability to maintain synchronism when being subjected to severe disturbances. With the large stochastic generation or load, whether the system is stable after a fault is also a stochastic event. A lot of work has been done on simulating the rotor angle oscillation considering a stochastic disturbance. Then, the probability of stability is calculated through Monte Carlo simulation. In contrast, this paper proposes an analytical method to estimate the probability of stability based on the probability distribution of a disturbance. The Monte Carlo simulation is done to verify the method. The result indicates that if we do not desire high accuracy, we can avoid the Monte Carlo simulation that requires an extremely high computation effort.