Terrorism Risk Modeling for Intelligence Analysis and Infrastructure Protection

This paper discusses the use of the Probabilistic Terrorism Model developed by Risk Management Solutions, Inc. (RMS) to evaluate terrorism risk liability. Three applications of the model are reviewed. The report applies the RMS Probabilistic Terrorism Model to compare the risk of terrorist attacks across various urban areas, to assess terrorism risks within a specific metropolitan area, and to target and enhance analysis of intelligence information. The RMS model is widely used in the insurance industry and therefore it can provide relevant data on how insurance-industry models can be used by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Other considerations covered in the report include decision support for resource allocation and development of standardized profiles for terrorism risk in selected cities.