Assessing trends in wolf impact on livestock through verified claims in historical vs. recent areas of occurrence in Italy

As wolves in Europe are expanding in range, their impact on economic activities through predation on livestock is increasing. In this context, the effectiveness of damage compensation programs is being debated and requires adequate assessment. With this aim, we performed a survey of wolf depredation on livestock in Italy during the years 2010 − 2014, comparing regions of historical and more recent wolf occurrence. We collected data on livestock depredations, prevalent husbandry practices and the main features of compensation schemes. We investigated the effect of several ecological and management-related variables on the extent of wolf impact. On average, 3274 (± 195.2 SD) wolf depredation events were compensated across Italy each year, comprising 7809 (± 1278.9 SD) livestock heads, and corresponding to € 1,450,814 (± € 184,762 SD) annual compensation costs. Regions recently recolonized by wolves reported lower and decreasing levels of impact compared to those with historical wolf presence. Half of all depredations occurred in 121 municipalities (9.7% of the total), which emerged as hotspots of impact and economic cost for the system. The proportion of farms with chronically recurring damage increased by 80% in the southern Apennines, where wolves never disappeared, whereas it declined by 100% in the Alps, due to effective prevention measures implemented following wolf recolonization in the mid-1990s. Long-term human-wolf coexistence does not necessarily correspond to lower damage levels and effective conflict management, casting doubts on the effectiveness and sustainability of compensation programs, if applied without reference to a context of adaptive management.