Climate Change Impacts on Campus Buildings Energy Use: An AI-based Scenario Analysis

Almost 50% of global energy consumption is associated with buildings, among which buildings operational energy account for a major share. Buildings operational energy needs are highly dependent on the envelope and space functionality characteristics, as well as climate properties, which is expected to change over time. While managing buildings energy performance, climate change can be a threat as it can cause significant changes in energy use patterns. This paper discusses the use of artificial intelligence techniques to assess the impact of climate change on campus buildings energy use under various future envelope and climate scenarios. We have relied on hourly energy use data of buildings situated in the University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, as well as their thermo-physical and space functionality properties. To study the impact of climate change, we have used climate properties of three future climate scenarios developed by North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) for Gainesville, FL, represented based on their impact within a 40-year prospect: median (year 2063), hottest (2057), and coldest (2041). In order to conduct the scenario analysis, we refer to the Technology Roadmap, Energy Efficient Building Envelopes, that is used to assess and present the development of technology products in building sector. According to the roadmap, we have assessed campus energy use for five envelope scenarios for each of the future climate scenarios.