Identification of the high-risk residence communities and possible risk factors of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China

Abstract The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a public health emergency of international concern. It is important to identify high-risk residence communities and the risk factors for decision making on targeted prevention and control measures. In this paper, the number of confirmed and suspected cases of COVID-19 in the residence communities in Wuhan, China was collected together with the characteristic variables of the residence communities and the distances between the residence communities and nearby crowded places. The correlation analysis was conducted between the number of confirmed cases and the characteristic/distance variables. Concerning the characteristic variables, there are significant positive correlations between the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases and the construction area, covered area, total number of houses, total number of buildings, volume ratio, property charge, and number of second-hand houses in the residence communities in Wuhan, while minor or no correlation is observed for the average price of houses, construction year, greening ratio, or number of sold houses. Concerning the distance variables, there are significant negative correlations between the number of confirmed cases and the distances from the residence communities to the nearest universities, business clusters, and railway stations, while minor or no correlation is observed for the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, kindergartens, primary schools, middle schools, shopping malls, cinemas, subway stations, bus stops, inter-city bus stations, airport, general hospitals, or appointed hospitals for COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, the residence communities which are newly-built, where the volume ratio or property charge is high or the construction area, covered area, or total number of houses, buildings, second-hand houses, or sold houses is large, or which are close to universities, business clusters, subway stations, or railway stations are the high-risk ones where strict measures should be taken. This study provides the authorities with a valuable reference for precise disease prevention and control on the residence community level in similar cities in the world.