Stochastic Simulation of Typhoon Tracks in Northwestern Pacific and its Engineering Applications

To simulate tropical cyclone track, the distribution characteristics and correlation of the parameters were carried out for each grid developed by latitude and longitude in the western Pacific, according to a total of 1618 tropical cyclones were recorded from 1945 to 2015. The results show that the tropical cyclone moving distance and the moving turning angle (6 hour interval) of each grid obey the generalizedextreme- value distribution and t-Location-Scale distribution respectively. For a number of consecutive moments of a tropical cyclone, the autocorrelation of the moving distance is strong, the autocorrelation of the moving turning angle is weak, and the cross-correlation between the moving distance and the moving turning angle is weak. Based on the statistical characteristics of these parameters, the probabilistic model of stochastic track simulation is established. Comparing the results of the simulation with the historical data, the results show that the probabilistic model has a high reliability.