The imprint of the cosmic supermassive black hole growth history on the 21 cm background radiation

The redshifted 21 cm transition line of hydrogen tracks the thermal evolution of the neutral intergalactic medium (IGM) at "cosmic dawn," during the emergence of the first luminous astrophysical objects (~100 Myr after the Big Bang) but before these objects ionized the IGM (~400-800 Myr after the Big Bang). Because X-rays, in particular, are likely to be the chief energy courier for heating the IGM, measurements of the 21 cm signature can be used to infer knowledge about the first astrophysical X-ray sources. Using analytic arguments and a numerical population synthesis algorithm, we argue that the progenitors of supermassive black holes (SMBHs) should be the dominant source of hard astrophysical X-rays---and thus the primary driver of IGM heating and the 21 cm signature---at redshifts $z 20$. An absence of such a signature in the forthcoming observational data would imply that SMBH formation occurred later (e.g. via so-called direct collapse scenarios), that it was not a common occurrence in early galaxies and protogalaxies, or that it produced far fewer X-rays than empirical trends at lower redshifts, either due to intrinsic dimness (radiative inefficiency) or Compton-thick obscuration close to the source.