Predictors of disability and absenteeism in workers with non-specific low back pain: A longitudinal 15-month study

Abstracts Objectives The objective of this study was to identify baseline predictors of disability and absenteeism in workers with a history of non-specific low back pain (LBP). Methods One hundred workers with a history of non-specific LBP participated in three evaluations (baseline, 7 and 15 months follow-up). Current and past history of LBP, clinical pain intensity, disability, absenteeism, fear-avoidance beliefs, pain catastrophizing, pain hypervigilance, work satisfaction and patient stratification based on “risk of poor clinical outcome assessment” (RPCO) were evaluated using questionnaires and interviews. In addition, cutaneous heat pain thresholds, cutaneous heat pain tolerance thresholds, conditioned pain modulation (CPM), trunk kinematics and muscle activity were measured during each evaluation. Logistic regression models were used to determine predictors of LBP disability and absenteeism at 15-months. Results Sixty-eight workers returned for the 15-month follow-up and among this sample, 49% reported disability and 16% reported absenteeism at follow-up. Baseline clinical pain intensity predicted disability (OR = 1.08, 95%CI: 1.03–1.13) at 15-month while work satisfaction (OR = 0.93, 95%CI: 0.87–0.99) and RPCO (OR = 1.51, 95%CI: 1.05–2.16) predicted absenteeism. These results remained significant after adjustments for age, gender as well as type of work and intervention. Conclusion This study highlights the importance of clinical pain and psychological factors in the prediction and potentially the prevention of future disability. Screening tools assessing these risk factors can be useful to evaluate workers with past history of low back pain.