Design-to-safety: Analysis of the explosion and fragmentation influence on inert debris impact footprints and mitigation solutions for innovative launcher concepts

Abstract The ever increasing price pressure on the worldwide launch market has shaped the strategy for the next generation of European launchers preparation. In addition to the development of low-cost propulsion technologies based on LOX/CH4, CNES Launchers Directorate, investigate the introduction of reuse of the main stage with a return phase performed by a Toss-Back maneuver, reducing overall costs. These launcher concepts, which have never been operated from French Guiana, give rise to new safety concerns different from those already handled for the launches operated from GSC, challenging the flight safety principles. This article provides an overview of the most critical scenarios, following an accidental explosion , in a Toss-Back maneuver, with an analysis of the effects of the resulting explosion (in terms of energy and fragmentation), and its impact on ground. The main goal is to identify the most critical parameters driving the scenarios’ criticality and to determine the possible risk mitigation measures such as “design-to-safety” solutions.