Estimation of photovoltaic power generation potential in 2020 and 2030 using land resource changes: an empirical study from China

Abstract In this study, the future dynamic photovoltaic (PV) power generation potential, which represents the maximum PV power generation of a region, is evaluated. This study predicts suitable land resources for PV systems and calculates the PV generation potential based on these predictions. Then the supply and demand for PV power in the future is obtained by forecasting the future power consumption of the entire society. The results of this research showed that due to the influence of land resource changes, some provinces in China will have almost no PV generation potential in the year 2030. The gap between the PV potential of each province and future electricity consumption is closing, and the ratio of supply and demand is decreasing, which has been calculated to be 39.8 and 30.8 in 2020 and 2030, respectively, under the scenario of 100% PV power generation. This study reveals the influence of land resource changes on the PV power generation potential and provides a basis for other potential assessments that consider future socioeconomic development.