Basic reproduction number of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease in Major Endemic Areas of China: A latent profile analysis

Objective: The aim of the study is to analyze the latent class of basic reproduction number (R0) trend of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID−19) in major endemic areas of China. Methods The provinces that reported more than 500 cases of COVID−19 till February 18, 2020 were selected as the major endemic area. The Verhulst model was used to fit the growth rate of cumulative confirmed cases. The R0 of COVID−19 was calculated using the parameters of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and COVID−19, respectively. The latent class of R0 was analyzed using a latent profile analysis model. Results The median R0 calculated from SARS and COVID−19 parameters were 1.84 − 3.18 and 1.74 − 2.91, respectively. The R0 calculated from the SARS parameters was greater than that of calculated from the COVID−19 parameters (Z = −4.782 − −4.623, P