Cellular Automata Based Land-Use Change Simulation Considering Spatio-Temporal Influence Heterogeneity of Light Rail Transit Construction: A Case in Nanjing, China

Light rail transit (LRT), an essential urban public transport system in China, significantly reshaped the urban land-use (LU) pattern. Although the LRT impact and land-use change (LUC) analysis plays an essential role in urban planning policy, the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of LRT impacts have not been considered in LUC simulation studies. This study simulates the urban LU change, considering the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of LRT construction impacts on urban LUC. LUC from 1995 to 2005 in Nanjing, China, is chosen as a case study. At first, the distance decay function is employed to verify the quantitative impact of LRT construction on LU change. Accordingly, the variation trends of each LU type during different stages are described in time and space. A cellular automata model incorporated by the generated LRT impact is established and then implemented for simulation. According to model performance assessment results, the proposed model can produce a realistic urban pattern with Freedom of Movement (FoM) exceeding 24% and a significantly lower relative error than the CA simulation without considering LRT influence.