La mortalidad de la Guerra de los Mil Días, 1899-1902*

La Guerra de los Mil Dias fue la mas letal y costosa guerra civil de Colombia. Hay cierto consenso sobre las consecuencias materiales, pero menos atencion ha recibido la perdida de vidas humanas. Aunque muchos historiadores repiten la cifra de 100.000 victimas, no esta respaldada por un analisis formal. Dado que la poblacion apenas superaba los 4 millones, es una cantidad elevada que amerita una revision cuidadosa. Utilizando los censos colombianos y los registros del Human Mortality Database, este documento estima el patron de edad de la mortalidad y evalua el aumento que estaria relacionado con la guerra. Observando la experiencia de otros paises, los modelos ayudan a estimar un valor maximo posible de perdidas humanas. Si la mortalidad colombiana hubiera aumentado tanto como en Francia durante la Primera Guerra Mundial, el numero de victimas no superaria los 100.000. En un caso mucho menos extremo, si hubiera aumentado tanto como en Inglaterra y Gales durante la Primera Guerra Mundial, el numero de muertos seria de 38.724. ******ABSTRACT: The War of the Thousand Days was the most deadly and costly civil war in Colombian history. There is some consensus about the material consequences, but less attention has been paid to human losses. Although the figure of 100,000 casualties is repeated, no support has been provided by formal analysis. Since the population barely exceeded 4 million, it is a high figure deserving a careful reexamination. Using Colombian censuses and the Human Mortality Database, this paper estimates the age-pattern of mortality and assesses the increase that would be related to war. Observing the experience of other countries, models help to estimate maximum possible human losses. If the Colombian mortality had increased as much as in France during World War I, the number of casualties would not exceed the 100,000. In a far less extreme case, if the it had increased as much as in England and Wales during WWI, the death toll would be as high as 38,724.