Forecasting of Solar Electricity Generation and PerformanceEvaluation of Forecasting models using Time Series data

The present study applies four time series models named TBATS, ARIMA, Simple exponential time series and Holt method to forecast the solar power generation in two Indian cities, Delhi and Jodhpur. Since solar power generation is dependent on solar irradiance hence the later one is forecasted with the help of time series models and former one with the help of forecasted solar irradiance value. The ARIMA method outperforms the TBATS, Holt method and Simple exponential by 11 percent, 31 percent and 32 percent respectively. Finally the forecasted values of ARIMA were used to calculate the total electricity production can be made in two sites, Delhi and Jodhpur. The difference in production came out to be 7.7 MWH, 36 MWH, 111 MWH and 65 MWH for November, December, January and February months with Jodhpur being on higher side for all four months