Drought Propagation Modification After the Construction of the Three Gorges Dam in the Yangtze River Basin

Abstract The construction of Three Gorges Dam (TGD) has exerted substantial effects on local hydrological regime and eco-system since its operation in 2003. Due to this significant anthropogenic activity, drought propagation processes from Meteorological drought to Hydrological (M-H) and Soil moisture (M-S) drought are inevitably modified. However, current studies are still insufficient to answer whether the TGD operation mitigated or exacerbated the drought propagation process due to its complex impacts. To explore this key issue, this study proposed an integrated framework to quantify the impact of TGD construction on drought propagation process in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB). The drought characteristics propagation models and propagation time were calculated to identify the modification of drought propagation process between different TGD operation scenarios. Trend and attribution analyses were also utilized to explore potential influence factors. Results demonstrated that TGD construction did significantly aggravate the drought characteristics propagation. Specifically, the slopes of hydrological drought duration and severity in linear propagation models increased 23.98% and 29.23% in average. While for M-S propagation, the slopes of duration and severity models increased 28.72% and 21.91%, respectively. This research also found that, after TGD operation, the M-H propagation speed had been slowed down but the M-S lag time became shorter. Additionally, the variations and trend patterns of six potential influence factors at four separate periods were full analyzed to provide implications for the drought propagation modifications. And TGD operation was confirmed to become a major factor inducing the variations of annual runoff, which accounted for 56.75% for the entire YRB. The above quantitative findings are expected to reveal the potential changes of drought propagation process caused by the construction of TGD in YRB. The proposed integrated framework is also beneficial to the drought early warning system and understanding of drought development not only in YRB, but also in other basins at the global scale.