The Estimation of Regional Energy Consumption Based on the Energy Consumption Rate at National Level. Case Study: The Romanian Danube Valley

Based on the national level data on energy consumption by final consumption sectors (agricultural, industrial, construction, residential and transport), the present study is aimed at estimating the energy consumption at county level. The overall energy Romania has consumed throughout a year has been broken down into ‘demographic’ and ‘economic’ components. The changes in the two components were determined on an annual basis for the following reference years: 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015. The variables used in the current investigation were assembled into two groups of indicators: demographic (urban population, population size, proportion of the population aged 65 years and over, the economically active population divided according to activities of national economy: agriculture, industry, transport), and economic (GDP per capita, energy consumption by the activities of the national economy: agriculture, residential, industry, transport). In some cases, where a significant share of the population worked in the industry sector (with the probability of a diversified industry), our calculations overestimated energy consumption. This may also be due to the cumulative effect of some demographic factors (i.e., the high degree of urbanization). The paper discusses the effect of the demographic variables (e.g., size, age and occupational structures) have on energy consumption. The paper shows that the economic growth Romania has been subject to since the year 2000 has led to a rise in energy consumption for two economic activities (agriculture, transportation) and it also turned out that improving the technologies used in industry has a positive effect on energy efficiency. Energy efficiency depends, in addition to the technologies used in each economic activity, on demographic factors. Some of the demographic factors have different trends in terms of energy consumption. The effect of the population size must be explained in the context of changes in the structure by age groups (aging of the population), changes in fertility and mortality rates. Moreover, the economic structure changes alongside the alterations undergone by the demographic structure. This, in turn, changes production and consumption, transport infrastructure, as well as social services. In order to draw firm conclusions about the relationship between energy consumption and population structure by age group, further detailed studies are needed, including making use of other indicators.