Summer Arctic dipole wind pattern affects the winter Siberian High

This study investigates the relationship between the summer [June–July–August (JJA)] Arctic dipole wind pattern and the following winter [December–January–February (DJF)] Siberian High. It is found that the summer Arctic dipole wind pattern is not confined only to the Arctic region; it spans the large domain north of 20°N. The negative phase of this wind pattern depicts an anomalous anticyclone over the Arctic Ocean and its marginal seas, except for the Barents-Kara seas where an anomalous cyclone is dominant. This wind pattern is significantly correlated with the strength of the Siberian High during the following winter and with the frequency of extreme cold events over East Asia during the winters of 1979–2014. The relationship of this wind pattern with the winter Siberian High has strengthened over the past decades, particularly since the late 1980s. The more robust relationship coincides with significant changes in the winter atmospheric circulation and frequent occurrences of the negative phase of this wind pattern, which dynamically contributes to low September sea ice extent. The present study's results suggest that autumn Arctic sea ice provides a link between this wind pattern and climate variability over East Asia during the following winter. Results of simulation experiments suggest that (1) autumn sea ice loss favors the occurrence of a stronger East Asian winter monsoon; (2) the summer Arctic dipole wind pattern modulates winter atmospheric responses to sea ice loss, and the negative phase of this wind pattern enhances the negative feedback of Arctic sea ice loss on winter atmospheric variability over Eurasia and North America. These simulation experiments also imply that complex and varying summer circulation patterns obscure linkages between sea ice loss and large-scale circulation responses over Eurasia. Isolation of the summer Arctic dipole wind pattern, however, provides a potential precursor for the seasonal prediction of winter surface air temperature in a populous region of the world.