Spatial heterogeneity of the association between temperature and hand, foot, and mouth disease risk in metropolitan and other areas

Abstract Interest in assessing the effects of temperature on hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has increased. However, little evidence is available on spatial heterogeneity in relationship to temperature and HFMD in metropolitan (capital city and municipal districts) and other areas where economic levels are significantly different. In this study, the Bayesian space-time hierarchy model was applied to identify the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of HFMD. GeoDetector was then used to quantify the determinant power of temperature to the disease in regions where the economic level has significant spatial heterogeneity. There was significant spatial heterogeneity in the influence of temperature on the incidence of HFMD in metropolitan and other areas. In metropolitan areas, where the disease risk is higher (hot spots), the HFMD incidence was higher alongside an increase in average temperature. However, in non-metropolitan areas, where the disease risk is lower (cold spots), there was an approximately S-shaped relationship between the temperature and the HFMD risk. More specifically, when the temperature was >25 °C, the HFMD incidence no longer increased monotonically with the increasing temperature. There was significant spatial heterogeneity in the effects of temperature on the HFMD incidence in metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas. This finding may serve as a suggestion and basis for the surveillance and control of this disease and it is conducive to the rational allocation of medical resources in different areas.