Research on a Certain Missile Reliability Based on Fuzzy FTA Method

Traditional reliability analysis is based on probability statistics. However, it is very difficult to collect firsthand enough and accurate data in practical work. In reliability analysis, sometimes we need to estimate the probability of system fault but do not necessarily use exact value to express the probability. In this paper, the author will adopt fault tree, analyze the failure rate of specific parts of a certain missile so as to fuzzify it by the fuzzy theory and calculate the fuzzy operator, find out the fuzzy probability of missile fault, and then forecast and analyze the reliability of missile based on the above result.