Change in vaccine willingness in Australia: August 2020 to January 2021

The ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods ANU COVID-19 Impact Monitoring Survey Program asked the same group of respondents about their vaccine intentions in August 2020 and January 2021. The paper provides data on the vaccine willingness in Australia as of January 2021 and how this changed since August 2020 both at the national level and for particular individuals. The paper provides estimates of how vaccine willingness has changed for different population sub-groups and the individual level characteristics which are associated with changes in vaccine willingness. We find an overall decrease in vaccine willingness, with the biggest decline being those who would definitely get a vaccine as of August 2020 but said they would only probably get a vaccine as of January 2021. We also look at the factors associated with vaccine willingness, as well as the factors associated with change through time. Executive summaryO_LIThe paper provides data on the vaccine willingness in Australia as of January 2021 and how this changed since August 2020 both at the national level and for particular individuals. C_LIO_LIThere has been a substantial increase in vaccine resistance and hesitancy and a large decline in vaccine likeliness between August 2020 and January 2021 O_LICombined, 21.7 per cent of Australians said they probably or definitely would not get a safe and effective COVID-19 vaccine in January 2021, a significant and substantial increase from the 12.7 per cent of Australians who gave the same responses in August 2020. C_LI C_LIO_LIAt the individual level, 31.9 per cent of Australians became less willing to get the vaccine between August 2020 and January 2021 in that they moved from a more to a less willing category. O_LIThere were still some Australians who became more willing over the period to get vaccinated (9.9 per cent). C_LI C_LIO_LIThe largest single flow across willingness categories was the 18.7 per cent of Australians who went from being definitely willing to get a COVID-19 vaccination to only probably willing to get one. There was a large decline in vaccine certainty, alongside increases in vaccine resistance. C_LIO_LIWe found three attitudinal factors that were particularly important in explaining the decline in willingness. Those Australians who think too much is being made of COVID-19, those who have low confidence in hospitals and the health care system, and those who are not optimistic about the next 12 months had all decreased in terms of their willingness to get vaccinated once a vaccine is available. O_LIIn addition to campaigns targeting vaccination directly, those programs that improve confidence, remind people of the dangers of COVID-19, but importantly highlight the potential for a much better 2022 all have the potential to improve vaccination rates. C_LI C_LIO_LIFemales, Indigenous Australians, those who speak a language other than English at home and those who have not completed Year 12 have all became less willing to get a vaccine since August 2020 compared to the rest of the Australian population. O_LIThese population groups are arguably the most urgent focus of any public health campaigns to improve willingness, both because they have low willingness to start with, but also because there is the potential opportunity to bring their willingness back to what it was in August 2020 when there was a smaller gap with the rest of the Australian population. C_LIO_LIThere is a real need to consider a significantly enhanced public health campaign in languages other than English C_LIO_LIThere is a need to convey information to the general public in a way that is informative, reassuring and salient for those without a degree C_LI C_LI