Vulnerability to Income Poverty in the Philippines: An Examination of Trends from 2003 to 2015

This study continues previous work on estimating the vulnerability level of households to income poverty using a modified probit model based on income and other poverty correlates data sourced from the Family Income and Expenditure Survey, as well as the country’s official poverty lines. Past model specifications are improved by including data on price and climate shocks to welfare, as well as by generating individual assessments for urban and rural areas before combining the cross-section results, rather than using a common specification nationally as done previously. The vulnerability assessment in this study provides inputs to forward-looking interventions that build the resilience of households for preventing or reducing the likelihood of future poverty. The study emphasizes the importance of using both poverty and vulnerability estimates in programs and identifies differentiated actions for those highly vulnerable and relatively vulnerable to poverty.