Estimating the household drought driven food insecurity using system dynamics model: The case of afar national regional state of Ethiopia

BACKGROUND: Building resilient communities has emerged as a dominant schema in the policy arena and in academia in the wake of recent disasters. Food insecurity is a complex and multidimensional phenomenon that is not appropriately captured by conventional proxy indicators currently used to assess the problem in developing countries. Ethiopia like many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, continues to experience high levels of drought driven food insecurity despite decades of implementing poverty alleviation and prevention programmes. These persistent droughts, combined with the devastating impact of climate change continue to threaten the livelihoods of thousands of men, women and children, who depend on agriculture for their livelihoods. OBJECTIVE: The overall objective of this study was to assess and analyze the drought driven food insecurity situation, malnutrition and derive policy implications in the Afar National Regional State of Ethiopia. METHODS: Mixed methods designs which include both qualitative and quantitative were used. The subjects of the study were men and women dwellers, government officials and other stakeholders in Afar Regional State of Ethiopia. Four Hundred Twenty Two (422) eligible households were enrolled consecutively from randomly selected two Districts in Afar National Regional State of Ethiopia which were selected by stratified Randomized method. The Districts were randomly allocated into 3 Keble's from Amibara and 2 Keble's from Awash Fentale. Two FGD (total of 10 FGDs participants that mean each Districts = 5 FGD) and 10 KIIs from Amibara and Awash Fentale were conducted. Standard questionnaires were used for data collection after validating the instruments. The data was analyzed by using SPSS version 23. Associated factors and multiple logistic regressions were employed. The study significance was conducted by using α 5% level. RESULTS: In this research (58.1%) of the participants agreed that lower crop yield occurred due to heavy rains/floods were not shocks among households. While (41.9%) were shocks on households who travel further loyal for grazing was the highest level of shocks among all those listed. On top of that majority (56.8%) of under five children were < 60% by their weight/age and (33.9%) between 61 and 70%. There was significant difference among MUAC (P= 0.007), BMI (P= 0.003) and height, weight, MUAC, BMI and weight/age among under five children.