Scenario Based Scheduling for New Aircraft Development

This paper investigates the problems of project scheduling at the design stage of the development of a civil aircraft. Such a complex system development is characterised by a dynamic environment and uncertainties concerning the duration of design activities. In order to leverage these uncertainties, we propose a scenario based approach to define and manage design schedules. These scenarios are created from detailed schedules and should allow project management functions to handles uncertainties and to anticipate the possible consequences of decisions which might affect design schedules. In our proposal, the problem is considered as a discrete Constraint Satisfaction Problem. The proposed solution includes the energy allocation based approach and the mathematical definition of two new types of constraints for resources allocation. These foundations contribute to the identification of scenarios which are different design schedules alternatives. To illustrate these proposals the capabilities of the first prototype developed are presented. This prototype is a management tool to compare different scenarios and to build schedules taking into account the dependencies between design teams and their respective constraints. Our approach is aimed to be generic while remaining flexible enough to be implemented within the aerospace industry. It should facilitate cooperation between design teams and provide scenarios based on schedules for the decision support process at different managerial levels.