COMPARING CONVECTIVE WEATHER AVOIDANCE MODELS AND AIRCRAFT-BASED DATA*

The Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM), developed in collaboration with NASA, translates convective weather information into a Weather Avoidance Field (WAF), to determine if pilots will route around convective regions. The WAF provides an estimate of the probability of pilot deviation around convective weather in en route airspace as a function of time, horizontal location, and flight altitude [1][2]. The results of the WAF can used to create reroutes around regions of convective weather where pilots are more likely to deviate. If reliable WAF information is provided to the cockpit and ground, pilot decisions may become more predictable, simplifying the task of air traffic control in convective weather. The improvement and validation of CWAM requires inference of pilot intent from flight trajectory data, which is challenging. The process currently involves laborious human review of the results of automated deviation detection algorithms. Both previous CWAM studies and a recent validation study [3] illustrate the difficulties and limitations of attempting to infer pilot intent from flight trajectory data. Furthermore, observed flight tracks may not correctly represent pilot preference. In some instances, pilots may have penetrated airspace that they would rather have avoided or they may have avoided airspace that was easily passable.