Estimation of the input data for the prediction of road transportation emissions in Spain from 2000 to 2010 considering several scenarios

Abstract This paper presents a study of pollutant emissions by road vehicles in Spain for the period 2000–2010. This study forms part of the SETISMO project, a global study of transportation in Spain for 1988–2010, and represents the logical continuation of the analysis of pollutant emissions by road transportation in Spain for 1988–1999. The study is based on the use of COPERT III software, of wide acceptance in Europe. The study for 1988–1999 emissions focused on obtaining input data for COPERT. The lack of data as well as the aggregated form of the available data were the main difficulties of the process, and required the design of a specific methodology for the Spanish case in that particular period. The period 2000–2010 was based upon two scenarios defined in terms of macroeconomical variables: GNP, population and infrastructure investment. These were used, through an economical model, to predict mobility for the period. The vehicle emission forecast was calculated upon that basis, considering future regulations, expectable technological evolution and other variables. The main results of the study are the emission series for a wide collection of pollutants, although the research process and the methodology followed led to secondary results of equal statistical value in terms of precision and degree of deaggregation (determined by the COPERT III Methodology categorization of vehicles). These scenario-based series constitute an illuminating forecast of road transportation pollutant emissions in Spain, allowing to predict the effect of future pollutant emission regulations as well as to identify the necessity for CO 2 emission–reduction policies in order to comply with Kyoto protocol levels.