Integration of the structural residential energy use model into the midrange energy forecasting system

The Midrange Energy Forecasting System (MEFS) is the forecasting system used by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), to produce energy forecasts for 1985, 1990 and 1995. MEFS originally integrated the Regional Demand Forecasting (RDFOR) Model with a set of supply and energy conversion models to produce static market equilibrium forecasts. The RDFOR, reduced form, econometric model for the residential sector has recently been replaced by the Residential Energy Use Model developed by Eric Hirst of the Oakridge National Laboratory. This paper describes MEFS, RDFOR, the Hirst Residential Energy Use Model, and the data development and software procedures that were required to integrate the Hirst model into MEFS. The paper also compares the relative performance of RDFOR and the Reisential Energy Use Model. It is intended that this paper be used as a guide for integrating other structural demand models into MEFS.