Online rumor propagation of social media on NIMBY conflict: Temporal patterns, frameworks and rumor-mongers

Abstract The rapid development of social media has accelerated the online rumor propagation, making social conflicts more intense during the development of NIMBY facilities. The “fake news” issue is not new, as the consequences will be amplified when the fakery spreads on social media as online rumors. However, few studies have been undertaken on the online public opinion, especially the rumor propagation on NIMBYism. This study collects data related to the anti-PX demonstration in Maoming city in 2014 on the Weibo platform. To form the rumor text library, qualitative research method is adopted to encode the collected data. Based on the social amplification of risk framework, three sub-frameworks are proposed in this study and statistical method is used to analyze the topics of rumors. Meanwhile, the textual content analysis and impact factor analysis is employed to examine the semantic features of rumor texts and the key role of rumor-mongers respectively. The results show that there are three main propagation lifecycles of rumors while the topics of rumors vary according to the cycle. Rumors belonging to each framework have diverse trend and the assessment framework is dominant throughout the process. “Individuals” and “Elites” are the main force of rumor spreading, and “Media practitioners” are the opinion leaders. These findings are useful for governments to establish a rumor detection system so that official information can be released and rumors can be refuted without delay. Meanwhile, the cooperation with the opinion leaders in online rumor propagation should be strengthened. In addition, a scientific popularization and timely notification of project progress is recommended prior to the development of NIMBY facility.