Can China Realize CO2 Mitigation Target Toward 2020

Abstract: This paper presents an energy—economic—environment model based on the dynamic CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model approach. A policy simulation was conducted to determine the potential and policy choices for China in order to reduce CO2 emissions towards 2020. The results show that carbon tax and investment adjustments are effective measures to alleviate CO2 emission increases, but can lead to negative impacts on GDP. Technological improvements can have positive impacts on GDP in regard to CO2 abatement. Under high technological improvement with a mid-level carbon tax scenario, and low technological improvement with mid-level carbon tax and mid-level investment adjustment scenario, China' s CO2 emissions in 2020 will reach 9.27–9.55 billion tons and CO2 emissions intensity will decline by 0.138–0.143 ton (103 Yuan RMB)-1. According to the mitigation target proclaimed by Chinese government, China should reduce CO2 emissions intensity from 0.241 to 0.145 t (103 Yuan RMB)-1 from 2005 to 2020...