Exploring the impacts of climate change and mitigation policies on UK feed barley supply and implications for national and transnational food security

The destabilizing impacts of climate change make mitigation measures a global imperative and urgent. The Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goal 13 give fresh impetus for climate change mitigation action. However, mitigation policies can have unintended consequences for food security. The current study assessed the impacts of UK climate mitigation policies on future food penalties (using feed barley and meat) and to highlight potential tele-coupled implications for transnational food security (especially in developing economies). Total barley production for the 2030s, 2040s, and 2050s was obtained from simulated barley yields under three emissions scenarios (high, medium, and low; or HES, MES, and LES, respectively) and projected land area for barley production from the updated study on UK land use change under climate mitigation policies. Future demand for feed barley was obtained as a product of projected population and per capita demand. Feed barley equivalent meat production and demand were obtained using similar approach. The differences between future demand and supply were calculated for all combinations of climate change and land use scenarios. The results show that land area under climate mitigation scenarios would be 82–87% of the mean land area currently under barley production. Consequently, deficits in feed barley supply could range from 40 to 51% of total demand from the 2030s to the 2050s, while deficits in meat could be as high as 71% of total demand in the 2050s. As a result, the UK moves from its current position of net exporter of barley to a major net importer of barley or meat in the future. If current land area is maintained, maximum feed barley and meat deficits would be 44% and 65%, respectively, of total demand in the 2050s. For example, based on the middle of the road land use and climate change scenarios, together with projected 90th percentile yield, feed barley deficits in the UK would be 7102, 7548, and 7963 thousand tonnes for the 2030s, 2040s and 2050s, respectively. The main sources of export of barley to the UK would have either excess domestic demand over supply or inadequate surplus to meet the fractional exports required to serve the UK deficit. Potentially increased imports by the UK from Ukraine, Germany, and France would require an adjustment in the trade flows to the current top importers from these countries as the UK’s share of import would increase from less than 1% currently to 13%, 32%, and 183%, respectively. The observed magnitude of deficits highlights adverse impacts of UK land-based climate mitigation policies on its food security, with potential consequences for transnational food security, especially in developing economies that rely on the global market for feed barley or meat supply.