Timed influence nets based evaluation of the effectiveness of public health emergency scenario

By analysis the causal relationship of the public health emergency actions and effects, then establish a generalized model for the prevention and control of public health emergencies by Timed Influence Net (TIN), and on this basis of probability reasoning, inference result can assist analysis the pros and cons the emergency scenario. Method was applied to the example of SARS outbreak in Beijing in 2003 to show the rationality and validity of proposed method. According to the results have a study on the optimization of emergency scenario, optimized conditions comparative and analysis with the actual program. The results show that the proposed method can better support emergency scenario evaluation and optimization.