Early estimates of the impacts of COVID-19 on U.S. agricultural commodity markets, farm income and government outlays

COVID-19 represents an unprecedented situation both for the economy and the agricultural sector, and thus there is a limit to which prior experience can guide the current analysis. This analysis is both preliminary and highly uncertain given the constantly evolving market conditions. The analysis considers only some of the ways in which COVID-19 may affect markets and is based on a series of assumptions, many of which may be overtaken by events. The objective is not to provide definitive estimates of impacts, but to identify some key issues and help readers develop some notion of the rough magnitudes of possible effects.