Formalizing an evaluation-prediction based roadmap towards urban sustainability: A case study of Chenzhou, China

Abstract Urban Sustainability (US) studies are dedicated to addressing what factors influencing and how to achieve sustainability of cities. Existing knowledge, however, lacks an integrated approach defining the interrelationships among urban systems and designing the pathways towards sustainable development. This study aims to formalize a roadmap framework based on the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) model to evaluate and predict US. The framework was validated by taking Chenzhou city in China as a case study, which is characterized to advance sustainable utilization and green development of urban water resources. A US measurement system with 33 indicators were proposed and weighted through a focus group interview with experts from urban management professionals. US performances of Chenzhou were evaluated using the panel data during 2010–2019 and predicted applying regression analyses during 2020–2030. Results indicate that Chenzhou performed quite differently among the DPSIR systems regarding sustainability, with their coordination degree fluctuated during the evaluation period. Predictions reveal that deviations exist across the evolutionary trends of DPSIR systems, but the overall US performance and the coordination degree are envisioned to be maximized before 2030. To this end, implemental strategies and managerial countermeasures were formulated to make trade-offs between achieving US and facilitating DPSIR coordination. Findings advance the knowledge domain of urban development assessment by integrating US measurement, evaluation and prediction, and roadmap design. Practically, the roadmap provides decision-making supports for urban planners, developers, and policymakers to manage and govern operations and policies of urban management.