Synergetic management of energy-water nexus system under uncertainty: An interval bi-level joint-probabilistic programming method

Abstract Synergic management of energy-water nexus (EWN) system is essential for coping with the dilemma of joint shortage of energy and water and supporting socio-economic sustainable development. The system is full of multiple uncertainties, making deterministic analysis methods infeasible. In this study, an interval bi-level joint-probabilistic programming (IBJP) approach is first developed through incorporating bi-level programming (BP) and interval joint-probabilistic programming (IJP) within a framework. IBJP has advantages in balancing the tradeoff between two-level decision makers under uncertainty, tackling uncertainties expressed as joint probabilities and interval values, and examining the risk of violating joint-probabilistic constraints. Then, the developed method is applied to planning China’s EWN system over a long-term planning horizon (2021-2050). Multiple scenarios related to different groups of constraint-violation levels for violating electricity demand and/or water availability constraints are examined. Results reveal that uncertainties associated with joint and individual probabilities have significant effects on EWN system synergetic management. Results also disclose that limited water resource would promote electricity generation structure alter toward a low water-intensity, clean and sustainable pattern, in which the share of clean energy would increase to 66.25% by 2050 and the corresponding water withdrawal can be saved by 41.20%.