Four-week forecasts of COVID-19 epidemic trajectories in South Africa, Chile, Peru and Brazil: a model evaluation

ABSTRACTIntroductionFrom the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, epidemiological models have been used in a number of ways to aid governments and organizations in efficient planning of resources and decision making. These models have elucidated important epidemiological transmission parameters, in addition to making short-term projections.>Methods>We constructed a compartmental mathematical model for the transmission, detection and prevention of SARS-CoV-2 infections for regions where Anglo American has mining operations. We fitted the model to publicly available data and used it to make short-term projections. Finally, we evaluated how the model performed by comparing short-term projections to actual confirmed cases, retrospectively.>Findings Conclusion

Keywords:

• Strategic planning
• severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
• Business continuity
• 2019 20 coronavirus outbreak
• Pandemic
• Transmission (mechanics)
• Regional science
• Coronavirus disease 2019
• Geography

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