Recommending the Most Effective Intervention to Improve Employment for Job Seekers with Disability

In Disability Employment Services (DES), a growing problem is recommending to disabled job seekers which skill should be upgraded and the best level for upgrading this skill to increase their employment potential most. This problem involves counterfactual reasoning to infer causal effect of factors on employment status to recommend the most effective intervention. Related methods cannot solve our problem adequately since they are developed for non-counterfactual challenges, for binary causal factors, or for randomized trials. In this paper, we present a causality-based method to tackle the problem. The method includes two stages where causal factors of employment status are first detected from data. We then combine a counterfactual reasoning framework with a machine learning approach to build an interpretable model for generating personalized recommendations. Experiments on both synthetic datasets and a real case study from a DES provider show consistent promising performance of improving employability of disabled job seekers. Results from the case study disclose effective factors and their best levels for intervention to increase employability. The most effective intervention varies among job seekers. Our model can separate job seekers by degree of employability increase. This is helpful for DES providers to allocate resources for employment assistance. Moreover, causal interpretability makes our recommendations actionable in DES business practice.