SARS Time Series Modeling and Spatial Data Analysis

By using ArcGIS9.3 SARS information on data collection and management, it was established that the spatial database containing information on SARS epidemic factors; the activities of SARS cases range control was simulated, and the best path for treatment of SARS cases was got by spatial analysis. S-type non-linear regression function is utilized in the cumulative number of confirmed deaths and cumulative curve fitting during SARS lasted; for cumulative number of confirmed, Logistic of s-shape function fitted better, while for cumulative number of deaths, Gompertz of s-shape function fitted better. Experimental results show that the fitted curve can effectively predict the SARS epidemic, and all preparedness and proactive actions would decrease SARS fatalities.