Sectoral peak CO2 emission measurements and a long-term alternative CO2 mitigation roadmap: A case study of Yunnan, China

Abstract China has established national CO2 peak emission targets and launched a series of low-carbon pilot programs to tackle climate change. Research on regional peak CO2 emission targets and the establishment of mitigation roadmaps based on local characteristics is fundamental for achieving the national goals. This study analyzed the peak CO2 emission targets by applying the stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology (STIRPAT) and long-range energy alternatives planning system (LEAP) models to data from Yunnan province, China. This study also simulated and measured the effectiveness of the CO2 abatement potential by decomposing the peak CO2 emissions for 14 subscenarios. The results showed that peak emissions will reach 200 Mt CO2e in Yunnan over a prolonged period from 2024 to 2028, and differences in the social-economic stages will result in different peak emissions from various sectors. Our research also found notable differences between different mitigation effects. Promoting hydro power, saving energy in the steel manufacturing and chemical sectors, employing highly efficient combustion engines in vehicles, developing public transport, and conserving urban residential energy should be considered as short-term primary actions. Clean-energy vehicles and saving energy in public buildings should be considered in the long term. Therefore, this study can provide a suitable reference to policymakers and stakeholders for identifying the most effective policy measures and actions for different sectors in low-carbon pilot planning programs.