Earthquake Disaster Mitigation for Urban Transportation Systems: An Integrated Methodology that Builds on the Kobe and Northridge Experiences

Around the world, natural disasters kill thousands each year and inflict billions of dollars in damage. Better analysis has the potential to save lives and resources on a large scale. One of the most important applications of economic analysis is to the evaluation of proposed projects and policy measures, usually benefit-cost analysis. A related but different approach involves regional economic impact analysis. Whereas benefit-cost analysis can be used to rank policy measures in terms of their efficient use of resources, impact analysis offers a reading of how far these measures deviate the local economy from current performance levels. The simplest examples are the widely reported multiplier analyses wherein proponents of certain projects (sports stadia, convention centers, etc.) claim that some multiple of annual expenditures will enhance the regional economy because of various ripple effects. Our claim in this research is that some available economic impact models when properly modified and elaborated lend themselves to the problem of determining plausible evaluations of earthquake mitigation and reconstruction policies for metropolitan areas.