Probabilistic Analysis of Gun Barrel Ablation Life Based on the Modified Response Surface Model

The randomness of structural and material parameters needs to be considered in the reliability analysis of gun barrel ablation life. However, the traditional method, like Stochastic FEM sampling, results in huge computing workload and low efficiency. This paper proposed a modified response surface model for estimating the gun barrel ablation life. In which, the estimation error of the response surface model is the optimization goal. Gauss-Newton method (GNM) is used to get the optimal solution whose initial value is solved by Genetic-algorithm (GA). After that, ablation life can be calculated by the optimized response surface model. GA is effective in global solution space searching, while GNM is effective in local searching. The new method takes full advantages of both GA and GNM in parameters estimation. The simulation result shows that the combination of GA and GNM obtains a higher precision of ablation estimation and greatly improves the computational efficiency.