Climate change impacts on farmland value in Bangladesh

Abstract Many studies have examined the effects of climate change on farmland value in developed countries, but our understanding of the impact of climate change on farmland value is still very limited, especially in developing countries. In this study, we aimed to assess the effects of climate change on farmland value in Bangladesh using the Ricardian model. Household-level data collected from seven selected agroecological zones in Bangladesh were used to estimate the relationships among farmland value and long-term climate, farm household, and policy variables. The results showed that the current land values of farmers are sensitive to climate. A new variable called “flooding” was added to the Ricardian model, and the results indicated that floods are responsible for reductions in farmland value, especially in lowland areas. Among the socio-economic variables, the availability of extension services and access to irrigation facilities were positively correlated with farmland value. The estimated marginal impact results suggested that increases in temperature were associated with losses in small farmland value, whereas the precipitation levels in both seasons positively influenced farmland value. Selected global climate models predicted that climate change would have a negative impact on land value depending on the climate model and source of farm income. The empirical findings obtained from this study are expected to contribute to the formulation of sustainable adaptation strategies to maintain farm productivity and farmland value in Bangladesh in the context of climate change.